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Faculty of Economics, Goce Delcev University , Stip , North Macedonia
Faculty of Economics, Goce Delcev University , Stip , North Macedonia
In the context of rising geopolitical tensions, trade fragmentation, and the U.S.–China trade war, understanding the drivers of bilateral export dynamics is increasingly important. This study empirically examines the impact of macroeconomic, financial, and geopolitical factors on China’s exports to the United States from 2004 to 2023. Using an OLS econometric model, it analyzes the effects of the exchange rate, foreign exchange reserves, gold prices, foreign direct investment, the U.S. dollar usage index, and global trade volume on export performance. The results show that exchange rate fluctuations and global trade conditions significantly affect Chinese exports. Appreciation of the Chinese currency against the U.S. dollar reduces exports, highlighting the role of price competitiveness. Increases in foreign reserves and foreign direct investment positively correlate with export capacity, while higher gold prices, indicating global instability, tend to decrease export volumes. A declining U.S. dollar usage index, reflecting dedollarization trends, also negatively affects export growth. The intensified trade war period (2018–2019) notably slowed China’s export expansion to the U.S. Policy implications stress the need for a stable exchange rate, accumulation of foreign reserves, and diversification of trade partners to mitigate deglobalization and trade conflict risks. Overall, this research provides empirical evidence to inform policies supporting sustainable export growth.
Conceptualization, F.T. and V.G.S. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.
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