This is an early access version
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Aristotle University of Thessaloniki , Thessaloniki , Greece
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University of Nis , Niš , Serbia
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Faculty of Economics in Subotica, Universtity of Novi Sad Serbia
Transport tax revenue-to-GDP ratios differ considerably across OECD countries, both in their levels and changes over time. This paper examines these differences, the dynamics of transport tax revenue as a share of GDP, and convergence between 2017 and 2024. The analysis covers 38 countries and uses a balanced panel of 304 country-year observations. The results show a general downward trend in transport tax revenue relative to GDP. Compared with 2017, the decline became statistically significant in 2019 and reached 0.104 percentage points of GDP by 2024. Countries with higher initial transport tax revenue-to-GDP ratios experienced larger absolute reductions, providing some evidence of convergence. However, this finding is not confirmed by the logarithmic specification or measures of cross-country dispersion. The results also show no significant change in the level or trend of transport tax revenue relative to GDP around 2020, as the decline had started earlier and continued afterwards. These findings demonstrate that declining transport tax revenue-to-GDP ratios and cross-country convergence represent distinct processes and highlight the persistence of substantial heterogeneity across OECD economies. From a policy perspective, the results underscore the importance of monitoring the fiscal evolution of transport taxation at a time when changes in mobility, vehicle technologies, and environmental policy are reshaping traditional transport-related tax bases.
Conceptualization, G.A. and J.Đ.T.; Formal Analysis, G.A. and J.Đ.T.; Project administration, G.A. and J.Đ.T.; Supervision, G.A., J.Đ.T. and B.K.; Writing – review & editing, G.A. and J.Đ.T.; Software, B.K. and M.R.C.; Writing – original draft, B.K. and M.R.C.; Data curation, M.R.C. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.
This article is based upon work from COST Action CA20138 – Network on Water-Energy-Food Nexus for a Low-Carbon Economy in Europe and Beyond (NEXUSNET), supported by COST (European Cooperation in Science and Technology).
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